California Scientific

Appendices

A good draft value article it seems. I'll see about getting a copy in a few days. I will be where I can get into university libraries and perhaps get it for free. Dr.Z's draft article. The source of my draft data.

Former Raiders tight end Todd Christensen: "It never ceases to amaze me how the NFL brass collectively treats draft picks like plutonium," he writes. "Years ago, the Raiders picked up Lyle Alzado for an eighth-round choice and Greg Pruitt for an 11th. The fact that Pruitt went on to be a Pro Bowl kick returner and Alzado played four more years is almost beside the point. What eighth or 11th round pick is going to play like these guys?

"In the other three major sports, they are more than willing to part with draft picks, plenty of them in fact, if they can garner a proven player. Maybe that is why the Patriots brass is so ahead of the curve. What second-round pick could have possibly given them 1,600 yards and been ridden to a Super Bowl title as Dillon was?"

Table 1: Draft Pick Value Chart

Round 1			Round 2			Round 3			Round 4			Round 5			Round 6			Round 7			Total	5 Years	v. Ave	v. Ave
1	3000		33	580		65	265		97	112		129	43		161	27		193	14		4041	20205	11155	5.2	1
2	2600		34	560		66	260		98	108		130	42		162	26		194	13		3609	18045	8995	4.2	2
3	2200		35	550		67	255		99	104		131	41		163	26		195	13		3189	15945	6895	3.2	3
4	1800		36	540		68	250		100	100		132	40		164	25		196	13		2768	13840	4790	2.2	4
5	1700		37	530		69	245		101	96		133	39		165	25		197	12		2647	13235	4185	1.9	5
6	1600		38	520		70	240		102	92		134	39		166	25		198	12		2528	12640	3590	1.7	6
7	1500		39	510		71	235		103	88		135	38		167	24		199	11		2406	12030	2980	1.4	7
8	1400		40	500		72	230		104	86		136	38		168	24		200	11		2289	11445	2395	1.1	8
9	1350		41	490		73	225		105	84		137	37		169	23		201	11		2220	11100	2050	1.0	9
10	1300		42	480		74	220		106	82		138	37		170	23		202	10		2152	10760	1710	0.8	10
11	1250		43	470		75	215		107	80		139	36		171	23		203	10		2084	10420	1370	0.6	11
12	1200		44	460		76	210		108	78		140	36		172	22		204	9		2015	10075	1025	0.5	12
13	1150		45	450		77	205		109	76		141	35		173	22		205	9		1947	9735	685	0.3	13
14	1100		46	440		78	200		110	74		142	35		174	21		206	9		1879	9395	345	0.2	14
15	1050		47	430		79	195		111	72		143	34		175	21		207	8		1810	9050	0	0.0	15
16	1000		48	420		80	190		112	70		144	34		176	21		208	8		1743	8715	-335	-0.2	16
17	950		49	410		81	185		113	68		145	33		177	20		209	7		1673	8365	-685	-0.3	17
18	900		50	400		82	180		114	66		146	33		178	20		210	7		1606	8030	-1020	-0.5	18
19	875		51	390		83	175		115	64		147	32		179	19		211	7		1562	7810	-1240	-0.6	19
20	850		52	380		84	170		116	62		148	32		180	19		212	6		1519	7595	-1455	-0.7	20
21	800		53	370		85	165		117	60		149	31		181	19		213	6		1451	7255	-1795	-0.8	21
22	780		54	360		86	160		118	58		150	31		182	18		214	5		1412	7060	-1990	-0.9	22
23	760		55	350		87	155		119	56		151	31		183	18		215	5		1375	6875	-2175	-1.0	23
24	740		56	340		88	150		120	54		152	30		184	17		216	5		1336	6680	-2370	-1.1	24
25	720		57	330		89	145		121	52		153	30		185	17		217	4		1298	6490	-2560	-1.2	25
26	700		58	320		90	140		122	50		154	29		186	17		218	4		1260	6300	-2750	-1.3	26
27	680		59	310		91	136		123	49		155	29		187	16		219	3		1223	6115	-2935	-1.4	27
28	660		60	300		92	132		124	48		156	29		188	16		220	3		1188	5940	-3110	-1.4	28
29	640		61	292		93	128		125	47		157	28		189	15		221	3		1153	5765	-3285	-1.5	29
30	620		62	284		94	124		126	46		158	28		190	15		222	2		1119	5595	-3455	-1.6	30
31	600		63	276		95	120		127	45		159	27		191	15		223	2		1085	5425	-3625	-1.7	31
32	590		64	270		96	116		128	44		160	27		192	14		224	2		1063	5315	-3735	-1.7	32

Draft Results Rounds 1-3 1994-2003

Team	Record	Remaining	Starters	Pro Bowls	Flunks	Remaining of 1s	Starters of 1s
Arizona	57-103	15 of 34 44%	17 of 34 50%	3 of 34 9%	2 of 34 6%	4 of 11 36%	8 of 11 73%
Atlanta	70-89-1	7 of 24 29%	11 of 24 46%	3 of 24 13%	5 of 24 21%	4 of 6 67%	5 of 6 83%
Baltimore	79-80-1	14 of 26 54%	17 of 26 65%	7 of 26 27%	2 of 26 8%	10 of 14 71%	12 of 14 86%
Buffalo	79-81	14 of 35 40%	18 of 35 51%	4 of 35 11%	3 of 35 9%	5 of 9 56%	7 of 9 78%
Carolina	64-80	14 of 28 50%	16 of 28 57%	4 of 28 14%	2 of 28 7%	3 of 10 30%	8 of 10 80%
Chicago	68-92	15 of 32 47%	17 of 32 53%	3 of 32 9%	3 of 32 9%	5 of 10 50%	3 of 10 30%
Cincinnati	52-108	10 of 32 31%	18 of 32 56%	3 of 32 9%	5 of 32 16%	6 of 11 55%	8 of 11 73%
Cleveland	26-54	12 of 18 67%	9 of 18 50%	0 of 18 0%	1 of 18 6%	4 of 5 80%	5 of 5 100%
Dallas	83-77	14 of 31 45%	17 of 31 55%	4 of 31 13%	3 of 31 10%	3 of 6 50%	6 of 6 100%
Denver	98-62	11 of 27 41%	12 of 27 44%	7 of 27 26%	3 of 27 11%	6 of 8 75%	5 of 8 63%
Detroit	65-95	11 of 29 38%	19 of 29 66%	2 of 29 7%	1 of 29 3%	4 of 12 33%	11 of 12 92%
Green Bay	108-52	14 of 31 45%	16 of 31 52%	4 of 31 13%	2 of 31 6%	3 of 10 30%	6 of 10 60%
Indianapolis	83-77	14 of 31 45%	20 of 31 65%	6 of 31 19%	1 of 31 3%	8 of 11 73%	10 of 11 91%
Jacksonville	73-71	12 of 32 38%	22 of 32 69%	4 of 32 13%	2 of 32 6%	4 of 11 36%	10 of 11 91%
Kansas City	94-66	11 of 28 39%	14 of 28 50%	2 of 28 7%	0 of 28 0%	4 of 9 44%	6 of 9 67%
Miami	96-64	12 of 32 38%	16 of 32 50%	5 of 32 16%	7 of 32 22%	1 of 6 17%	2 of 6 33%
Minnesota	92-68	13 of 32 41%	19 of 32 59%	4 of 32 13%	3 of 32 9%	6 of 13 46%	11 of 13 85%
NY Giants	78-81-1	13 of 31 42%	17 of 31 55%	1 of 31 3%	0 of 31 0%	7 of 10 70%	6 of 10 60%
NY Jets	73-87	14 of 31 45%	17 of 31 55%	4 of 31 13%	1 of 31 3%	7 of 12 58%	11 of 12 92%
New England	93-67	13 of 35 37%	17 of 35 49%	7 of 35 20%	3 of 35 9%	5 of 11 45%	8 of 11 73%
New Orleans	66-94	11 of 27 41%	18 of 27 67%	4 of 27 15%	0 of 27 0%	4 of 10 40%	10 of 10 100%
Oakland	81-79	17 of 31 55%	17 of 31 55%	3 of 31 10%	2 of 31 6%	8 of 13 62%	11 of 13 85%
Philadelphia	87-72-1	15 of 36 42%	18 of 36 50%	7 of 36 19%	2 of 36 6%	7 of 10 70%	5 of 10 50%
Pittsburgh	95-64-1	14 of 34 41%	17 of 34 50%	7 of 34 21%	2 of 34 6%	6 of 10 60%	7 of 10 70%
San Diego	63-97	11 of 33 33%	14 of 33 42%	1 of 33 3%	3 of 33 9%	3 of 4 75%	3 of 4 75%
San Francisco	100-60	14 of 31 45%	15 of 31 48%	4 of 31 13%	3 of 31 10%	6 of 11 55%	7 of 11 64%
Seattle	78-82	16 of 32 50%	16 of 32 50%	4 of 32 13%	1 of 32 3%	7 of 13 54%	11 of 13 85%
St.Louis	82-78	15 of 39 38%	20 of 39 51%	5 of 39 13%	6 of 39 15%	7 of 13 54%	10 of 13 77%
Tampa Bay	86-74	12 of 28 43%	21 of 28 75%	8 of 28 29%	2 of 28 7%	3 of 9 33%	9 of 9 100%
Tennessee	89-71	14 of 33 42%	18 of 33 55%	5 of 33 15%	2 of 33 6%	5 of 9 56%	8 of 9 89%
Washington	70-89-1	11 of 26 42%	15 of 26 58%	5 of 26 19%	2 of 26 8%	4 of 9 44%	7 of 9 78%
Total		403 of 949 42%	518 of 949 55%	130 of 949 14%	74 of 949 8%	159 of 306 52%	236 of 306 77%
Team	Record	Remaining	Starters	Pro Bowls	Flunks	Remaining of 1s	Starters of 1s
Remaining: Players drafted in the first three rounds of 1994 through 2003 still with the drafting club. Starters: Players who became regular starters somewhere. Pro Bowls: Players who made the Pro Bowl. Flunks: Players who lasted one year or less in the NFL. Remaining of 1s: First-round choices still with the drafting club. Starters of 1s: First-round choices who became regular starters somewhere.